Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed3a88e88aa41dfbd7580630a2c12eef7c97d69989b8d3ee625a2043d59747e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 21c | 507.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.41 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 37c | 496.44$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.78 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 399.25$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 251.66$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 78c | 237.18$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.79 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 38c | 234$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 208.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 26c | 208$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 204.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 199$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 75c | 178.18$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 169.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 146.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 36c | 144$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 77c | 138.02$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 134.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 38c | 133.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebf…a01dbacked No | 77c | 130.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 63c | 116.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 113.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 106.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 56c | 102$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 97.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…8aa5backed Yes | 34c | 96.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 42c | 95.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 66c | 90.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 13c | 83.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 76.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 46c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 32c | 67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 79c | 65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 58.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 57.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 52.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…5f45backed Yes | 33c | 51.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 32c | 46.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed No | 65c | 45.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 42.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 35c | 42.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 32c | 42.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed No | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 38.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 36.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 33c | 35.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed No | 68c | 34.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 32.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 63c | 31.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 31.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 66c | 30.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 29.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 60c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 25.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 68c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7785…8df8backed No | 70c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 58c | 20.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 65c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 53c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…79f7backed No | 66c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 69c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 66c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.