Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x841efaf1a3fedca64a710366beb0cb3982f97ccda7b0430d5ef901d99470a2af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 78c | 433.9$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 23c | 269.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 199.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 17c | 184.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 173.5$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 13c | 170.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 164.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 42c | 159$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 154.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 40c | 153.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 145.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 138.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 128.42$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 117.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 114.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 111.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 63c | 106.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 20c | 99.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 34c | 89.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 83.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 77.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Yes | 57c | 75.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 69.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 64.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 56c | 63.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 65c | 59.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 57.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 57.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 30c | 56.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 55c | 54.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 45c | 50.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 41c | 46.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 38c | 46.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 25c | 44.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 61c | 41.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 40.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 61c | 39.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 39.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 43c | 38.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 38.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 37.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 36.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 35.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 38c | 35.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 32.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 31.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…aa43backed No | 65c | 28.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 44c | 27.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 61c | 26.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 39c | 26.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 25.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…7db8backed No | 66c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 51c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.