Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x620bb2e03899fef475495ee89e88aad22edc3a00131397024960d79e3fb50a1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 3c | 470.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 235.46$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 63c | 186.97$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 53c | 185.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 143.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 12c | 140.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 110.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 102.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 64c | 102.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 28c | 79.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 64c | 63.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 59.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 52c | 57.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 52c | 55.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 62c | 39.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 37.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 41c | 35.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 36c | 31.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 74c | 31.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 42c | 30.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 24.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 24.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 49c | 24.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 22.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 21.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 64c | 16.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.