South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x620dee7c6e8bd3c94143d6875f457971fb472d5d6224db4e44b215ff34ad99ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 64c | 2,808$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.86 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 35c | 2,334$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.39 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a2…ea25backed Yes | 63c | 765.28$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 512.23$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.03 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 40c | 381.55$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…57bebacked Yes | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 73c | 304.98$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 62c | 219.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Yes | 16c | 214.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 151.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 10c | 139.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 12c | 132.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 73c | 129.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 64c | 106.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 63c | 92.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 48c | 73.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…4094backed Yes | 64c | 70.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 66.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 58c | 63.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 70c | 51.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…2352backed Yes | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed No | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 58c | 37.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 55c | 34.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 55c | 34.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed No | 54c | 26.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 54c | 21.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 73c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 63c | 20.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.