Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6214e3a4b4e16a55e2fbc9ae19ad85a6d6a6107fdfec298f13c461e43a36259b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 76c | 951.29$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.29 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 72c | 914.81$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.97 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 537.98$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 51c | 485.02$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…f51ebacked No | 3c | 434.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 419.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 78c | 370.78$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 30c | 361.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.16 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 332.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 332.6$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.66 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 17c | 275.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.99 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 247.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 15c | 218.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 31c | 189.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 30c | 149.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 142.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 119.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 28c | 119.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 118.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 26c | 118.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 67c | 102.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked No | 20c | 100.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7570…5be1backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 22c | 91.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 34c | 84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 74.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 34c | 72.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 32c | 68.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 65.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 19c | 64.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…d04ebacked No | 44c | 63.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 62.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 53.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 21c | 51.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 40c | 50.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 33c | 49.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 49.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d9…cf16backed No | 74c | 48.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 48.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98d…86e4backed Yes | 31c | 48.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa4…f4eabacked No | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 38c | 44.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 41.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 68c | 39.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 37.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 32.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed Yes | 79c | 26.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 55c | 26.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 72c | 21.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 67c | 21.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 79c | 19.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 67c | 19.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 16.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.