Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: DOGSENT vs Winter Bear (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6226473049761052471bd558575d3ccb53849645012e78b26b8eaa7c28df2c96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Winter Bearof DOGSENT, Winter Bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27cf…979abacked DOGSENT | 4c | 22,238$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf54…320abacked DOGSENT | 15c | 1,749$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…17c3backed DOGSENT | 3c | 677.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked DOGSENT | 30c | 602.41$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed DOGSENT | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Winter Bear | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Winter Bear | 80c | 289.22$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5a…b691backed Winter Bear | 80c | 235$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed DOGSENT | 34c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Winter Bear | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…8ababacked DOGSENT | 48c | 161.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed DOGSENT | 22c | 159.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Winter Bear | 80c | 152.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…2359backed Winter Bear | 80c | 137.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…e6b7backed Winter Bear | 76c | 125.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked Winter Bear | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed DOGSENT | 19c | 124.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7f…9093backed DOGSENT | 20c | 102.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…7fb0backed Winter Bear | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed DOGSENT | 24c | 93.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…7111backed Winter Bear | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed DOGSENT | 33c | 75.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked DOGSENT | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed DOGSENT | 33c | 67.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…e6fbbacked Winter Bear | 80c | 62.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…9a6ebacked Winter Bear | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Winter Bear | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed Winter Bear | 76c | 38.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed Winter Bear | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Winter Bear | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Winter Bear | 77c | 27.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Winter Bear | 80c | 25.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbb…2948backed Winter Bear | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…6570backed Winter Bear | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…cc67backed Winter Bear | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f07…b10abacked Winter Bear | 68c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: DOGSENT vs Winter Bear (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffsthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.