TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof Team Spirit, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07b1…6dfcbacked Nigma Galaxy48c25,022$11,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,081.793148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Nigma Galaxy47c21,094$9,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,161.518844.7%84 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Spirit53c14,958$7,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,927.7960542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe075…f2ddbacked Team Spirit53c10,914$5,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,782.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x052c…6762backed Team Spirit52c5,325$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit53c5,303$2,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810.4753652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Team Spirit52c4,655$2,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,435.4510050%50 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa245…2152backed Team Spirit52c3,951$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.133158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c5…6930backed Team Spirit52c3,225$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-70.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xaaed…44f8backed Nigma Galaxy50c2,005$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.692748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Nigma Galaxy46c1,994$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.873852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Spirit51c1,532$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.7850353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Spirit52c1,352$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.2225549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89dc…c012backed Team Spirit54c1,352$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.053441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Nigma Galaxy46c1,250$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.491855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd1…864bbacked Team Spirit49c1,210$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy44c1,013$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.341,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Team Spirit52c1,010$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.19744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Team Spirit53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53043738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Team Spirit25c948.77$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2735850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Team Spirit53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Spirit53c900$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47780443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Nigma Galaxy48c762.32$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.9332548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed Team Spirit53c726.42$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3851145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Team Spirit50c660$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33013148.1%63 W · 68 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked Team Spirit54c564$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.565238.5%20 W · 32 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Team Spirit54c523.37$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.5314343.4%62 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Spirit63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Spirit54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Spirit44c368.45$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5577256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Team Spirit52c325$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.254820.8%10 W · 38 L-7.3wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-55.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Nigma Galaxy58c306.67$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.64761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed Nigma Galaxy51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1476240.3%25 W · 37 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23d3…fc0ebacked Team Spirit54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16212544%55 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Nigma Galaxy51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1478842%37 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a1…ceb5backed Nigma Galaxy47c275.49$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.011369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf07b…def2backed Team Spirit54c259.26$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1408247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Team Spirit53c224$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7225956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Nigma Galaxy47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7721353.5%114 W · 99 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Spirit40c210.86$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2141864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Nigma Galaxy47c210.64$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.646266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f6c…035bbacked Team Spirit57c202.19$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.258057.5%46 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0975…0899backed Team Spirit50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca1…3d96backed Team Spirit54c186.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c2…d39ebacked Team Spirit53c185.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.155147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed Team Spirit35c175.14$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.35954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Team Spirit52c169.81$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3920738.6%80 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Nigma Galaxy51c156.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8653634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Nigma Galaxy48c145.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8326343%113 W · 150 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a1…d1eebacked Team Spirit24c143.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.33per pick48cpaid-73%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Team Spirit70c138$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5519251.6%99 W · 93 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Spirit49c133.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9771143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Team Spirit51c120$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.222738.3%87 W · 140 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Team Spirit53c113.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ce…3f1dbacked Team Spirit47c109.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514753.2%25 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca9…1799backed Nigma Galaxy51c100.52$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.536743.3%29 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Team Spirit53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310446.2%48 W · 56 L-11.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-23%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Nigma Galaxy76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2442146.6%196 W · 225 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3214…cfcbbacked Nigma Galaxy48c99.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5216361.3%100 W · 63 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e17…589ebacked Nigma Galaxy51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.044856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e96…e128backed Team Spirit52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010937.6%41 W · 68 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d25…1c06backed Team Spirit49c81.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6129…0807backed Team Spirit49c66.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.833641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked Team Spirit54c61.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.212646%58 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8532…4284backed Team Spirit52c55.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297139.4%28 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Nigma Galaxy67c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.778516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Team Spirit52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df8…8e9dbacked Nigma Galaxy47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.54240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Nigma Galaxy49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4421328.2%60 W · 153 L-16.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Team Spirit54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Team Spirit53c42.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6313547.4%64 W · 71 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Nigma Galaxy74c40.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4843860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Team Spirit52c38.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Spirit53c35.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0437745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb862…a00dbacked Nigma Galaxy33c33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.11475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+93.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Team Spirit54c31.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7819455.7%108 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Nigma Galaxy48c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5997142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Team Spirit52c24.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.966136.1%22 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x089f…dddabacked Team Spirit58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611363.7%72 W · 41 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c41…5cd2backed Team Spirit68c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.152552%13 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.