Tennis · resolved market
Santos: Hernan Casanova vs Franco Roncadelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x624b95eb8d75261881857daad65ad734a3d30bcaeb8e153e282a782d47a82a21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Franco Roncadelliof Hernan Casanova, Franco Roncadelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Hernan Casanova | 35c | 2,010$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.43 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Franco Roncadelli | 71c | 1,672$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.04 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hernan Casanova | 6c | 851.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed Hernan Casanova | 51c | 824.97$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.74 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Franco Roncadelli | 49c | 809.14$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.8 | 252 | 45.2%114 W · 138 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Franco Roncadelli | 67c | 751.94$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.14 | 661 | 39.3%260 W · 401 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Hernan Casanova | 53c | 430$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hernan Casanova | 28c | 410.71$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Hernan Casanova | 53c | 313.28$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef51…263fbacked Hernan Casanova | 25c | 282.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Franco Roncadelli | 71c | 234.77$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hernan Casanova | 55c | 197.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Hernan Casanova | 15c | 168.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Franco Roncadelli | 57c | 130.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Franco Roncadelli | 73c | 127$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Hernan Casanova | 53c | 93.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Hernan Casanova | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Hernan Casanova | 53c | 68.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Franco Roncadelli | 38c | 62.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Hernan Casanova | 55c | 56.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Hernan Casanova | 33c | 55.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Franco Roncadelli | 64c | 34.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Franco Roncadelli | 67c | 31.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Hernan Casanova | 55c | 25.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Franco Roncadelli | 46c | 23.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Franco Roncadelli | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos: Hernan Casanova vs Franco Roncadellithis page
- Santos: Completed Match: Hernan Casanova vs Franco RoncadelliYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.