Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62611a76525b90abe5f93ec64cb1cce57f83bc95b9f13575fe3618410ba7ad2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked MOUZ | 48c | 3,714$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.09 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed MOUZ | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.99 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed MOUZ | 46c | 1,500$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.99 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed PARIVISION | 55c | 1,494$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.04 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed PARIVISION | 52c | 1,466$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.75 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed PARIVISION | 52c | 1,394$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.03 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked PARIVISION | 52c | 932.48$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.59 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked PARIVISION | 75c | 717.36$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.03 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed PARIVISION | 52c | 560.4$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.04 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed MOUZ | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…5e07backed PARIVISION | 52c | 487.54$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 50c | 476.7$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.97 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked MOUZ | 43c | 414.18$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.47 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed MOUZ | 22c | 400.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked MOUZ | 47c | 352.46$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.94 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked MOUZ | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed MOUZ | 47c | 297.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed PARIVISION | 51c | 296.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.46 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed PARIVISION | 51c | 273.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.67 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed PARIVISION | 55c | 267.07$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed PARIVISION | 50c | 246.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.47 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION | 60c | 243.94$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed PARIVISION | 55c | 229.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked PARIVISION | 52c | 227.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.37 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…c639backed MOUZ | 49c | 203.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed PARIVISION | 52c | 203$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked PARIVISION | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…9ef7backed PARIVISION | 52c | 199.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed PARIVISION | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed PARIVISION | 55c | 155.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked MOUZ | 48c | 149.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed MOUZ | 48c | 136.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…c16fbacked PARIVISION | 52c | 134.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked PARIVISION | 51c | 100.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed MOUZ | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked PARIVISION | 54c | 78.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed MOUZ | 47c | 61.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed MOUZ | 33c | 53.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed PARIVISION | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed PARIVISION | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ | 46c | 43.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked MOUZ | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed PARIVISION | 55c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked PARIVISION | 54c | 31.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5653…30cbbacked MOUZ | 46c | 31.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked MOUZ | 45c | 27.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed MOUZ | 46c | 22.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed PARIVISION | 52c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed PARIVISION | 55c | 19.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed PARIVISION | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StagePARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.