TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$333,539
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$357,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,539 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked PARIVISION70c104,858$73,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,689.328748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ29c40,269$11,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,721.472,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION72c34,245$24,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,668.391,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb042…204cbacked MOUZ29c22,222$6,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,444.384055%22 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed MOUZ30c19,928$5,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,908.2840051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked MOUZ28c18,857$5,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,238.1489741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed PARIVISION70c14,974$10,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,492.0827153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed MOUZ29c12,821$3,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,745.6951751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3afc…4ae6backed MOUZ0c12,023$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed MOUZ30c12,015$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,650.8843344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed PARIVISION70c12,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.9924153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed PARIVISION70c7,733$5,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.8356955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed MOUZ33c7,000$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31041056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed PARIVISION70c6,929$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.6925248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ30c6,608$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.381,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked MOUZ30c6,387$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91639343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION71c6,380$4,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.0896557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked MOUZ12c5,384$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.965034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ25c5,274$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.631,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ29c5,125$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.631,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked MOUZ29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ29c4,725$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.81,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed PARIVISION71c4,528$3,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.4341351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ27c4,459$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.2389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03d…07e1backed MOUZ2c4,378$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.744027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fac…1feebacked PARIVISION72c4,138$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.542445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed PARIVISION70c4,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20029348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed PARIVISION71c3,981$2,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.4915848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed PARIVISION70c3,437$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.14365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed PARIVISION70c3,362$2,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.9129143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed MOUZ29c3,243$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.1769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed MOUZ30c3,213$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.0426550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ22c3,058$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked MOUZ30c3,040$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91241242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed MOUZ30c2,791$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.297941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed MOUZ29c2,605$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.5222643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ30c2,505$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.4758744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a0…6f8bbacked PARIVISION79c2,498$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.846569.2%45 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked MOUZ29c2,387$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.21,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed MOUZ21c2,300$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48347046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked MOUZ29c2,267$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.4196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed MOUZ16c2,264$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.2355147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed MOUZ30c2,099$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.8714443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MOUZ26c2,084$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.9956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed MOUZ30c2,060$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.9560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed PARIVISION71c1,685$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.5733541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed MOUZ30c1,677$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.9525935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked MOUZ30c1,619$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.1116541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed MOUZ29c1,596$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.91714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-78.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ29c1,578$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.292,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ18c1,550$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked MOUZ30c1,542$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.2737945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ16c1,495$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4146451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked PARIVISION71c1,493$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.235951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked PARIVISION71c1,457$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.4835461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked MOUZ8c1,433$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1316725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed PARIVISION71c1,384$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.3410751.4%55 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ30c1,370$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.9854445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked MOUZ5c1,300$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6537811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed MOUZ29c1,271$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.4819147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a5…caa6backed MOUZ31c1,237$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.444841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked MOUZ30c1,220$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.7243049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked PARIVISION71c1,214$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.2434544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed PARIVISION70c1,212$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.4818356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…a68abacked PARIVISION70c1,100$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed PARIVISION77c1,073$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.5447650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked MOUZ23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23025147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed PARIVISION70c989.86$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.9649455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed PARIVISION70c982$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.611154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked MOUZ30c964.29$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3226843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2487…0ad0backed MOUZ30c958$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.42429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed MOUZ29c895.9$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.8124636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10d5…dc17backed MOUZ3c882.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.37376.7%56 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ28c841.66$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MOUZ30c808.82$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.7967043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed MOUZ14c770.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11111131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed MOUZ28c742.33$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8356548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed MOUZ2c699.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.76132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ30c695.67$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8172035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked PARIVISION71c689.36$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9141055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked MOUZ26c623$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed PARIVISION67c610.63$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.5160552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MOUZ29c595.85$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed PARIVISION71c542.2$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.2411654.3%63 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb05…ed70backed PARIVISION71c510.44$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.034856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe438…e80cbacked MOUZ3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135910.2%6 W · 53 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed PARIVISION80c495.32$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9234667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed MOUZ30c479$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.75950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked MOUZ6c478.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.577639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked MOUZ27c388.22$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.823141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ28c375.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.081,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked MOUZ30c372.2$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5550749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed MOUZ25c354.09$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2225648%123 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked MOUZ5c347.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8821043.8%92 W · 118 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ea9…daefbacked PARIVISION80c345.8$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.162352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked MOUZ30c330.51$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1530155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5808…d235backed MOUZ30c319.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.811744.4%52 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed MOUZ30c304.44$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3114955.7%83 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb527…be8fbacked MOUZ30c300.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.