Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: SK Nebula vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62788413dfbf5edb18f1fd9be337107ea86049307fc79d6d8ef5787b61e5ab6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FOKUS Sakuraof SK Nebula, FOKUS Sakura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2eba…0f3abacked SK Nebula | 63c | 499.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.84 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed SK Nebula | 45c | 306$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 811 | 34.9%283 W · 528 L | -60.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked SK Nebula | 21c | 271.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…4748backed FOKUS Sakura | 67c | 218$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed SK Nebula | 66c | 194.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9133…20acbacked FOKUS Sakura | 47c | 189.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FOKUS Sakura | 42c | 181.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FOKUS Sakura | 34c | 154.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 443 | 42%186 W · 257 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…7cc5backed FOKUS Sakura | 36c | 127.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked FOKUS Sakura | 38c | 123.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 225 | 39.1%88 W · 137 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…81b0backed SK Nebula | 75c | 106.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked SK Nebula | 43c | 97.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…6a12backed FOKUS Sakura | 51c | 74.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed SK Nebula | 63c | 67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed8…2c70backed FOKUS Sakura | 50c | 59.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 132 | 61.4%81 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…2958backed FOKUS Sakura | 79c | 56.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked SK Nebula | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed SK Nebula | 51c | 49.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 278 | 47.1%131 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked SK Nebula | 51c | 41.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked FOKUS Sakura | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked FOKUS Sakura | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked FOKUS Sakura | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked SK Nebula | 54c | 26.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 321 | 57.6%185 W · 136 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked FOKUS Sakura | 79c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 273 | 60.1%164 W · 109 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked FOKUS Sakura | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 571 | 51%291 W · 280 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: SK Nebula vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: SK Nebula vs FOKUS Sakura (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group StageFOKUS Sakura won
- Valorant: SK Nebula vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 2 WinnerFOKUS Sakura won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.