TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: SK Nebula vs FOKUS Sakura (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FOKUS Sakuraof SK Nebula, FOKUS Sakura
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,919 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e64…89c3backed SK Nebula36c3,941$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.7710946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed FOKUS Sakura39c3,210$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.6119860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed FOKUS Sakura44c1,667$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.1626051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked SK Nebula56c819.45$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.3119751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed SK Nebula58c788.44$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.844342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked FOKUS Sakura44c727$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.9328143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed SK Nebula59c688.3$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.9515843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FOKUS Sakura55c655.49$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.9915147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed SK Nebula56c640$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.45952.5%31 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked SK Nebula57c613.12$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.7284838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcecf…e84fbacked FOKUS Sakura58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.241758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked SK Nebula61c481.04$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.717234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed FOKUS Sakura41c475.64$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.647749.4%38 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked SK Nebula56c416.8$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.9196245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b9…ad06backed FOKUS Sakura45c393.74$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.337254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed FOKUS Sakura40c388.71$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.2325556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed SK Nebula59c338.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6417948.6%87 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe247…edf1backed SK Nebula62c323.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+73.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FOKUS Sakura74c305.2$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2557151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked SK Nebula33c285.1$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.728743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…2d03backed SK Nebula63c283.82$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.141154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked SK Nebula66c270.29$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.134443.3%149 W · 195 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FOKUS Sakura57c253.53$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.971,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed SK Nebula71c250$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.21070%7 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed SK Nebula53c248.79$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8122344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FOKUS Sakura39c247.29$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.8693148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa7…089dbacked FOKUS Sakura44c229.85$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.723847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FOKUS Sakura73c211.25$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.041,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FOKUS Sakura58c202.4$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.221,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed SK Nebula61c201$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.274447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked FOKUS Sakura40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12013043.1%56 W · 74 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked FOKUS Sakura31c197.62$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.3615431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae00…6af8backed SK Nebula68c193.5$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08be…3220backed SK Nebula67c192.77$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.15425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked FOKUS Sakura73c189.94$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2877744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FOKUS Sakura53c169.21$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.331,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed SK Nebula68c165.96$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8563447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed FOKUS Sakura33c163.78$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.7325554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed SK Nebula21c160.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2839646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed SK Nebula60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9022346.6%104 W · 119 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked SK Nebula60c149.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8619551.3%100 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2167…fa33backed FOKUS Sakura38c144.45$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.454860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked FOKUS Sakura52c139.38$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3162856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed SK Nebula53c137.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6381134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56af…3065backed FOKUS Sakura32c133.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed SK Nebula59c125.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8277929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xab93…8479backed FOKUS Sakura40c125.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.843450%17 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6db…25c3backed FOKUS Sakura40c125.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.693342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed FOKUS Sakura73c125$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.759845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed FOKUS Sakura35c124.95$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.0716041.9%67 W · 93 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed SK Nebula64c121.8$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9527956.6%158 W · 121 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf4…e669backed FOKUS Sakura33c121.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.211861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FOKUS Sakura59c115.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.441,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf2…d024backed FOKUS Sakura34c113.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.782937.9%11 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed FOKUS Sakura67c112.95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3514852.7%78 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FOKUS Sakura58c104.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.81,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa05e…0c23backed FOKUS Sakura38c100.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e9…39a0backed FOKUS Sakura40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606544.6%29 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a1…d1eebacked FOKUS Sakura59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+53.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2338…27f6backed FOKUS Sakura40c97.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.513243.2%57 W · 75 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked FOKUS Sakura46c91.56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.222352.9%118 W · 105 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed FOKUS Sakura33c90.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.913336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed SK Nebula63c87.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1813661%83 W · 53 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked FOKUS Sakura41c85.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9313148.1%63 W · 68 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked SK Nebula43c85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.790733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked SK Nebula59c84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.564946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed SK Nebula67c80.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9928252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked SK Nebula54c78.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.571,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed SK Nebula68c77.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.978349.4%41 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfd1…cd25backed FOKUS Sakura40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed FOKUS Sakura41c73.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1718647.8%89 W · 97 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked FOKUS Sakura42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.436850%34 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked SK Nebula63c70.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.646639.4%26 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd48…0ea2backed FOKUS Sakura43c70.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.582552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed8…2c70backed FOKUS Sakura33c65.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7713261.4%81 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed SK Nebula42c63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.75538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-35.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf3df…2d82backed SK Nebula56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed SK Nebula65c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3974642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed SK Nebula60c57.28$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.314254.9%78 W · 64 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FOKUS Sakura49c56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5893049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked SK Nebula63c54.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.428348.2%40 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b14…b8debacked FOKUS Sakura29c54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.341844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed FOKUS Sakura49c53.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5712335.8%44 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffb3…fc52backed FOKUS Sakura57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.632347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked SK Nebula69c49.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8520051.5%103 W · 97 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed FOKUS Sakura37c41.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.414961.2%30 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ee…0439backed SK Nebula60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.96854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed SK Nebula69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked SK Nebula59c35.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0860154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked SK Nebula55c33.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4822539.1%88 W · 137 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked SK Nebula50c32.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3132157.6%185 W · 136 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc95e…102abacked SK Nebula63c31.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.811650%8 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed FOKUS Sakura35c31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1543843.6%191 W · 247 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked SK Nebula65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.570043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked SK Nebula62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63363.6%21 W · 12 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4d…60f8backed FOKUS Sakura39c29.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+164.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb908…6175backed SK Nebula69c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked FOKUS Sakura43c26.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.956759.7%40 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed SK Nebula52c25.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3865347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe49f…03acbacked SK Nebula66c25.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.77540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.