NHL · resolved market
DEL: EHC Red Bull Muenchen vs. Adler Mannheim
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6284837e3c954a3d654ad3e4e2ddc2ec92df24ba844b2ec0eacbac416bd54a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- EHC Red Bull Muenchenof EHC Red Bull Muenchen, Adler Mannheim
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f26…be98backed Adler Mannheim | 56c | 2,463$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 1,064$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.97 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 333.9$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.96 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 201.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 131.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 131.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 45c | 123.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51c0…03a9backed Adler Mannheim | 49c | 110.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Adler Mannheim | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 86.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…bdffbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 58c | 78.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 65.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 65.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 54c | 38.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…610dbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 58c | 35.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…4186backed Adler Mannheim | 40c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…0d61backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Adler Mannheim | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Adler Mannheim | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 28.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ea…1231backed Adler Mannheim | 62c | 26.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.