CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x628716e7fa250f0bcc17488f0ee68efcf9b29dbfe303b9a467995bad676ede6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yawara Esportsof Yawara Esports, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x048f…9992backed Keyd | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 574 | 0%0 W · 574 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Keyd | 61c | 325.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Yawara Esports | 39c | 283.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.46 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yawara Esports | 60c | 243.9$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Keyd | 32c | 240.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Keyd | 50c | 226$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Keyd | 38c | 212.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yawara Esports | 50c | 200.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…a989backed Keyd | 16c | 194.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 143 | 22.4%32 W · 111 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Keyd | 43c | 179.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed Yawara Esports | 37c | 153.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keyd | 29c | 146.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yawara Esports | 44c | 118.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…0c65backed Keyd | 25c | 111.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Keyd | 45c | 109.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed Keyd | 36c | 105.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4723…5f64backed Keyd | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed Keyd | 54c | 96.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Keyd | 39c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Yawara Esports | 40c | 93.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 390 | 38.5%150 W · 240 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Yawara Esports | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 270 | 37.8%102 W · 168 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Yawara Esports | 47c | 91.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 309 | 39.2%121 W · 188 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Yawara Esports | 67c | 89.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yawara Esports | 51c | 89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yawara Esports | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Keyd | 62c | 83.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…8c32backed Keyd | 63c | 77.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Yawara Esports | 47c | 68.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 220 | 37.3%82 W · 138 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…1068backed Keyd | 59c | 67.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 323 | 61.6%199 W · 124 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Keyd | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Keyd | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Yawara Esports | 42c | 51.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 306 | 38.9%119 W · 187 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Keyd | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Keyd | 43c | 47.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Yawara Esports | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 263 | 44.1%116 W · 147 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Keyd | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yawara Esports | 50c | 45.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Keyd | 45c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Yawara Esports | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 401 | 40.6%163 W · 238 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Yawara Esports | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Keyd | 39c | 32.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Yawara Esports | 36c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…b4e9backed Yawara Esports | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #2 Group BKeyd won
- Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd - Map 1 WinnerKeyd won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.