Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d91bf1296c291fdb41841d521fa05560fe84c5697c91702de5fd4051720f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 58c | 40,000$23,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,148.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 42c | 33,318$13,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,324.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…4f48backed Yes | 45c | 11,168$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,167.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 5,708$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.87 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 55c | 3,221$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.79 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 2,029$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.2 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 44c | 1,119$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.91 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 44c | 544$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.52 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 56c | 507.09$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.89 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 43c | 459.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 56c | 446$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 403.53$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.89 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 44c | 341$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 44c | 236.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 43c | 204.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…139ebacked Yes | 43c | 158.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 44c | 122.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 58c | 41.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 57c | 17.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.