Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63026dcb10ab1788246650f24cb1a1b227fc9666fe694ca838397acabeb8f261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 6,381$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,372.16 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 72c | 3,747$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 73c | 1,087$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.6 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 728.6$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.66 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cd…acebbacked Under | 54c | 499.99$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 73c | 352.93$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.71 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 57c | 306.24$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 15c | 276.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 148.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 74c | 112.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 16c | 97.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 18c | 87.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 34c | 72.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 346 | 59.8%207 W · 139 L | +49.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 34c | 70.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 398 | 61.8%246 W · 152 L | +56.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 48c | 56.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 45.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 42c | 44.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Under | 59c | 42.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 56c | 41.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 40c | 27.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.