Asian League · resolved market

Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9de4ecb3ef116db0fcc0b3a71bb8d6b336a74934cc189471a966d72d943660f

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,292 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Asian League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb6ee…0bd0backed Over	56c	26,474$14,781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,692.96	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+3.3wins	+0.26per pick	51cpaid	+48.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed Under	44c	8,000$3,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,549.94	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.18per pick	63cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	58c	4,771$2,760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,010.6	5,946	46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L	+50.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	44c	4,161$1,827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,827.44	1,725	50.6%873 W · 852 L	+28.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2444…4252backed Under	44c	2,361$1,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,038.78	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+3.7wins	+0.19per pick	49cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	44c	2,066$902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$901.88	2,522	42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L	+54.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Under	46c	2,000$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$919.99	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Under	47c	1,934$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under	44c	1,600$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704	183	53%97 W · 86 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under	47c	1,437$671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670.8	102	35.3%36 W · 66 L	-9.1wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under	44c	1,200$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528	120	50%60 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Over	57c	851.83$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.84	93	44.1%41 W · 52 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under	44c	700$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	131	54.2%71 W · 60 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Under	34c	625.64$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.68	158	26.6%42 W · 116 L	-13.5wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under	44c	600$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	172	47.1%81 W · 91 L	-8.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under	44c	597.22$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.12	117	64.1%75 W · 42 L	+11.7wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under	44c	592$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.48	168	56%94 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under	44c	500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	153	49.7%76 W · 77 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	44c	479.43$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.95	1,764	50.2%886 W · 878 L	+31.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under	44c	460$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.4	177	57.6%102 W · 75 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under	44c	400$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	211	52.1%110 W · 101 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under	44c	400$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	144	53.5%77 W · 67 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Over	76c	394.74$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.74	246	54.1%133 W · 113 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	43c	386.28$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.1	396	49.7%197 W · 199 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Under	46c	361.15$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.13	136	31.6%43 W · 93 L	-13.8wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under	44c	340.91$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	127	41.7%53 W · 74 L	-6.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	154	54.5%84 W · 70 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	161	52.2%84 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Under	44c	295.61$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.07	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	54c	292.5$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.04	2,491	40%997 W · 1,494 L	-18.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	44c	286$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.84	1,651	50.9%840 W · 811 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under	44c	260$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.4	150	50.7%76 W · 74 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under	44c	260$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.4	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	44c	236.8$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.19	401	56.4%226 W · 175 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Under	44c	200$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under	33c	181.49$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.8	1,063	42%446 W · 617 L	-12.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Under	44c	170.45$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-7.4wins	-0.19per pick	51cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under	44c	160$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.4	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under	44c	156$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.64	182	56%102 W · 80 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under	44c	156$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.64	149	53.7%80 W · 69 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under	44c	140$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.6	161	54.7%88 W · 73 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	44c	129$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.76	1,970	54.4%1,071 W · 899 L	+32.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38e…8917backed Over	77c	126.57$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.3	57	66.7%38 W · 19 L	+8.4wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	44c	117.93$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.55	471	55.8%263 W · 208 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	162	55.6%90 W · 72 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Under	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	129	51.9%67 W · 62 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	179	53.6%96 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over	55c	96.52$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.99	73	45.2%33 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked Under	42c	91.62$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.48	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Under	44c	80.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.42	122	44.3%54 W · 68 L	+9.6wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	45c	75$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.84	1,522	54.9%835 W · 687 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	118	49.2%58 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under	43c	66$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.38	142	47.2%67 W · 75 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed Over	77c	65$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Under	44c	64.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over	55c	62.53$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.92	159	71.1%113 W · 46 L	+15.5wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Under	43c	58.11$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under	44c	56.36$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	+5.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	44c	55.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.72	1,221	50.2%613 W · 608 L	+12.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe68b…dc9ebacked Over	57c	52.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.63	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Under	44c	51$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbffb…a60ebacked Under	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	66	43.9%29 W · 37 L	-7.9wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under	44c	47.11$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	198	56.1%111 W · 87 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	76c	46.9$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.26	345	60%207 W · 138 L	+49.3wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	42c	46.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	1,356	45.5%617 W · 739 L	+15.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Under	44c	45.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f9…92e3backed Under	44c	45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Under	44c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	123	54.5%67 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Under	45c	31.44$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	154	55.8%86 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	44c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	143	49.7%71 W · 72 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Under	44c	27.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	76c	25.5$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	375	62.7%235 W · 140 L	+61.4wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2c91…af73backed Under	44c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under	44c	23$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	139	49.6%69 W · 70 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Under	44c	22.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18d2…e9c3backed Over	55c	21.96$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.84	30	80%24 W · 6 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	69cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bcd…ac63backed Over	56c	21.09$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.38	30	83.3%25 W · 5 L	+6.0wins	+0.20per pick	63cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7891…c020backed Over	56c	20.29$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.93	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	60cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over	56c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	54	40.7%22 W · 32 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Over	80c	13.47$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.74	51	62.7%32 W · 19 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5this page
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5Over won
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5Over won
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Over won
Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event