Earnings · resolved market
Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630ceec498588348fda031541ea65bf2f7ce6187ca9d15953ce4271f1cbeeb77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 51c | 763.72$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.44 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 42c | 469.03$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.72 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 368.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.46 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 27c | 352.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 52c | 285.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 70c | 238.3$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 51c | 215.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 28c | 130.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 47c | 127.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 39c | 100.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…ee86backed Yes | 69c | 82.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 44c | 63.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 32c | 52.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 49.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 75c | 42.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…4af2backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 32cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f2…f720backed Yes | 50c | 39.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…14fcbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53a…8dc7backed No | 55c | 31.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…9dd7backed No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.