Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63300e04d611608850ed675ca823d4978a9a22356fddabb7a676f8445945b99a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,639$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…6bcfbacked Yes | 46c | 323.6$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed No | 79c | 282.15$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 5c | 275$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…7168backed Yes | 69c | 272.28$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 66c | 259$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.09 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 10c | 216.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes | 47c | 212.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 51c | 169.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafff…19b2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 99.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 51c | 99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…50f1backed No | 50c | 83.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 58c | 79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…6b8bbacked Yes | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cea…9606backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 49c | 51.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…0c76backed Yes | 52c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…559cbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 56c | 39.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5efd…6f5ebacked Yes | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +473.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…aca1backed Yes | 52c | 38.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…ef36backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed Yes | 35c | 34.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…ee61backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…29ebbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 25.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on October 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on October 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on October 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.