Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6357166a5ca477b72e5413a748b829cd0d8249cef16ec9e6869bc56df46f2031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 225.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 117$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 100.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 97.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 97.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 93.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1ff4backed No | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 71c | 79.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 79.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 78c | 77.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 72.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 36c | 71.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 69.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 67.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 65.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 63.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 43c | 60.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 71c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 41c | 52.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 47.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 22c | 46.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 45.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 56c | 42.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 59c | 42.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 61c | 41.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 42c | 31.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…8c6dbacked No | 72c | 30.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 28.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 28.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 38c | 26.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 25.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 64c | 23.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7506…6996backed No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 72cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.