Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x637de0bb760f7275334e71c88259836331c314981d7f5d80686f3ba5e882b58c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,366 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 29c | 314.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 301.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 19c | 299.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 294.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 258.92$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 24c | 239.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 223.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 27c | 182.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 180.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 12c | 179.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 78c | 164.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 23c | 90.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…8aeabacked Yes | 29c | 86.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 28c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 27c | 83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 33c | 82.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 21c | 80.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 38c | 79.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 19c | 78.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 18c | 77.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 71.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 29c | 68.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…eadbbacked Yes | 36c | 62.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 62.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 71c | 56.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 55.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 26c | 50.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…374bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 49.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 48.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 68c | 48.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 48.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 39.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 65c | 37.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5547…9478backed Yes | 32c | 36.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 75c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 75c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 62c | 17.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…3c45backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…1ad1backed No | 71c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +162.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 77c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.