TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,680 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf37…993fbacked No18c475.4$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3865625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf657…f8d0backed Yes55c300$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1361442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes75c274.84$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.436,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb082…30e0backed Yes62c273.88$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.442254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes61c272.13$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes73c263.98$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes60c240$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.384228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No17c210.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.187,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No30c205.73$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6358349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes43c178.56$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1011,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes51c165$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.530141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes62c162.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0117156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes34c156.11$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.031,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c152.55$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…8aeabacked Yes69c143.75$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No31c137.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.071,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No33c122.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.151,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc585…c51ebacked Yes53c115.65$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.52657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes39c114.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.466835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No46c111.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.163,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed No45c110.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9556118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No50c109.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6727756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03eb…47b0backed No50c100.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes39c100.13$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7723633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6230…6debbacked Yes56c94.97$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.382437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe68c…779dbacked Yes66c91.15$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.744843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No31c90.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.021,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9dd…eadbbacked Yes65c90.13$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No44c89.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5923547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes73c84.6$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6729459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d97…66f8backed Yes66c73.81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.344057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7340935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…8ca0backed Yes73c67.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.127969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No31c66.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.461,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f72…95c9backed Yes36c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.74032.5%13 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes52c57.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4115047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.58124.7%20 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2354232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked No43c49.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4910728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No45c48.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.246934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…22f7backed Yes64c46.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.816319%12 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-56.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No50c46.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.251,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes53c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.158732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes61c44.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2814626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes56c44.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.344536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes55c43.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.91,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ecc…d023backed Yes58c42.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8810647.2%50 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes57c39.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2835362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12b2…74b8backed No63c39.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No48c39.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes61c38.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8621448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e55…9a76backed Yes56c36.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.351850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5580…8029backed Yes57c35.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.395261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No57c34.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes55c34.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.477536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4833839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No34c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes43c29.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9913340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No46c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.311,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No59c28.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.216639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes53c28.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1314544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes58c27.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6842438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2755538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes38c26.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.322,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes76c26.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.58153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31df…6f1abacked Yes56c24.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.911154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked No49c24.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123164.5%20 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…c6d1backed Yes43c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed Yes58c23.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.764647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes52c23.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No57c21.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4820942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes57c21.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.037653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d2…aab7backed Yes53c20.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.151,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.240871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe830…efd0backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2646…82afbacked Yes57c19.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes59c18.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6919449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.