Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63800acdabf9a7276f7da3fc89e7bf50a7b18cd7e234d89e4d61b2f5e1dd754f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 218.66$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 11c | 204.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 190.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 60c | 167.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 121.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 112.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 44c | 104.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 68c | 98.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 29c | 82.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 18c | 64.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 78c | 61.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…ffaebacked Yes | 30c | 61.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 79c | 61.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 30c | 56.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 70c | 55.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 31c | 54.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5594backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…d6bbbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 48c | 41.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 36c | 38.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 52c | 36.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…2ea6backed No | 77c | 33.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 33.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 32c | 31.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed Yes | 41c | 31.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…e8adbacked No | 77c | 30.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 72c | 29.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…5898backed No | 77c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked No | 71c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 71c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.