Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb545410fb9774754dd36c076c07c29db7ccda9804b38a5ceeb9c88ae60885c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 75c | 748.7$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.42 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 305.59$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.4 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 260.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 9c | 245.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…33d0backed Yes | 38c | 238.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 20c | 165.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 34c | 93.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694b…8424backed Yes | 75c | 91.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…ffaebacked Yes | 34c | 82.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 72.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 58c | 70.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 68.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 67.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 34c | 60.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 56.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 63c | 56.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 66c | 55.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 49.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 65c | 44.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 42.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 41c | 42.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 41.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 62c | 38.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 42c | 38.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 37c | 38.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 39c | 37.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 71c | 36.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 73c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 55c | 34.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed Yes | 42c | 34.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 70c | 33.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 41c | 31.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 31.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 71c | 31.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 70c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 26.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 26.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…c4c9backed Yes | 43c | 24.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 64c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3947backed Yes | 78c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 69c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.