Fifa International · resolved market
Will IR Iran win on 2025-11-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6393a2ba94bc69d11b74cb6ed0b38089c721a28fc08a8cfd8c4bb47a8e60a9b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cfe…2dc9backed No | 54c | 9,600$5,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,416 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…5ae3backed Yes | 46c | 9,600$4,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,416 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…9728backed Yes | 41c | 1,897$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 50c | 1,479$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.06 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…26fdbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 738.62$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.05 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Yes | 48c | 626.27$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 310$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 51c | 273.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.24 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…6775backed Yes | 47c | 147.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c9…2e09backed Yes | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 51c | 123$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 397 | 49.9%198 W · 199 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 52c | 117$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 51c | 116$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 51c | 116$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 464 | 53.2%247 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 47c | 111.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 52c | 103.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 51c | 86.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 459 | 49.5%227 W · 232 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 52c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 52c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 51c | 50.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c7…e539backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…7d21backed Yes | 49c | 26.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef30…f009backed Yes | 46c | 22.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will IR Iran win on 2025-11-13?this page
- Will Cabo Verde win on 2025-11-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.