Lol · resolved market
BLAST Bounty: Spirit vs. Virtus.pro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63976caacdc6334765d3adaedc15ce8aab6ca54a9d7a2c875eb068e1496a0064
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Virtus.pro | 17c | 20,172$3,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,348.48 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 13,404$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.5 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Virtus.pro | 13c | 5,017$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…50e2backed Virtus.pro | 16c | 3,113$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Virtus.pro | 15c | 2,977$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.55 | 91 | 27.5%25 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…549ebacked Spirit | 78c | 2,697$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.46 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 2,059$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 1,585$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.12 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…6bc4backed Virtus.pro | 13c | 1,319$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…8169backed Virtus.pro | 16c | 1,305$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Virtus.pro | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Virtus.pro | 4c | 1,083$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Virtus.pro | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Spirit | 80c | 925.21$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.77 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Virtus.pro | 17c | 907.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Virtus.pro | 17c | 893$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.81 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…db1bbacked Virtus.pro | 14c | 779.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Virtus.pro | 18c | 760.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Virtus.pro | 16c | 609.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Virtus.pro | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Spirit | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 388 | 37.4%145 W · 243 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Virtus.pro | 5c | 314.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Virtus.pro | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Spirit | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Virtus.pro | 10c | 188.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 538 | 29.4%158 W · 380 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 174.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Virtus.pro | 18c | 172.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…8230backed Spirit | 74c | 148.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…f594backed Virtus.pro | 18c | 144.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…445dbacked Spirit | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Virtus.pro | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 96.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Virtus.pro | 27c | 92.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Virtus.pro | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…7fb6backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Spirit | 78c | 68.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Spirit | 79c | 66.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 641 | 46.5%298 W · 343 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…4578backed Spirit | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Virtus.pro | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b3…5411backed Spirit | 67c | 36.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f5…8febbacked Spirit | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.