Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-10-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x639d736a43dd411f190302f71583870a9a35f8e7a4d8b5056c3fe70f3dc933d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 25c | 4,002$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.4 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 26c | 2,050$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.96 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 1,807$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.62 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 1,693$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.49 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,606$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.25 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,598$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.17 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 80c | 1,297$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.49 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 24c | 707.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 75c | 506$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 74c | 407.05$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 26c | 162.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…aab7backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…2fa3backed No | 75c | 116$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 25c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 25c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 74c | 45.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 26c | 45.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-10-23?this page
- Will SC Braga vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.