Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $185?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63aedc5a239ac744097d18e0f199e773018da861aec0cf055de37d1b20562e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,104 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 66c | 663.29$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.6 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 30c | 328.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e47…1e75backed Yes | 36c | 233.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 55c | 204.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 71c | 171.36$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 12c | 168.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 17cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 35c | 144.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…2b9fbacked Yes | 37c | 136.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 43c | 85.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5a…2af7backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 44.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 45c | 30.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed No | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 25.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 76c | 24.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…4cdabacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 70c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $185?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $165?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $170?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $175?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $180?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $190?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $195?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.