Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63bd1141321d4a320f951bfd8ab4e69015524731b609a83c131ac8bee6789e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 1,253$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 7c | 956.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 3c | 752.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 26c | 280.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 277.37$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 269.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 207.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 193.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…10eabacked No | 67c | 193.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 169.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 164.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 32c | 159.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 34c | 154.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 13c | 151.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 130.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17b…3f39backed No | 71c | 103.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 20c | 97.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 29c | 84.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 84.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 30c | 83.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 83.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 43c | 81.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…f4ecbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 69.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 67.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 54c | 60.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 34c | 53.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 73c | 51.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 68c | 49.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 33c | 48.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 71c | 47.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 56c | 43.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…5e0dbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbd…0351backed No | 63c | 37.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed No | 71c | 31.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 33c | 30.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 76c | 25.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…526cbacked Yes | 45c | 25.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 68c | 20.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 73c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…6469backed No | 69c | 14.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…c804backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.