Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x586d57c6123e74b7ec68baaf204e10619c58830942bd3d5b3a984f12511b5666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 26c | 681.37$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.54 | 544 | 22.6%123 W · 421 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 77c | 435.12$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 36c | 361.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 330.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 20c | 329.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 60c | 321.82$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 69c | 312.79$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 521 | 43.6%227 W · 294 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 51c | 280.32$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.73 | 470 | 33.6%158 W · 312 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe91a…a33ebacked Yes | 63c | 175.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 41c | 146.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 52c | 136.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 130.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ad…ec38backed Yes | 79c | 125.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 76c | 117.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 33c | 100.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 99.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 68c | 94.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…5029backed No | 12c | 92.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 21c | 88.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 88.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…8a6abacked Yes | 61c | 82.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 28c | 66.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17b…3f39backed Yes | 41c | 66.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…fc1abacked No | 76c | 66.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 46c | 57.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 76c | 56.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 66c | 55.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1,182 | 38.2%452 W · 730 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…3eb0backed Yes | 69c | 40.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…5e0dbacked Yes | 47c | 38.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 72c | 36.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 66c | 29.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 68c | 26.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…2ef2backed Yes | 52c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…ff84backed Yes | 80c | 24.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b3…dce7backed Yes | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed No | 68c | 18.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 73c | 17.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad6…7880backed Yes | 80c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…8d7ebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.