Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Real Betis beat Chelsea?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63cf626707e745d16d5ab6a240e80402ccd9ba1491717e89d25c9cb7da1c5a91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd178…6703backed Yes | 23c | 6,991$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed No | 77c | 6,985$5,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 24c | 6,427$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 76c | 6,087$4,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 76c | 1,029$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.36 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb995…5f38backed Yes | 23c | 498$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 76c | 354.12$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 48c | 234.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…c779backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb484…341dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 78c | 90.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41a…5fd4backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e04…21ebbacked Yes | 24c | 74.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…f6adbacked Yes | 24c | 56.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Betis beat Chelsea?this page
- Will Chelsea beat Real Betis?Yes won
- Will Real Betis vs. Chelsea end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.