Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Chelsea beat Real Betis?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x278ae49c9e54b1cfb0fb68ad6a39f503cc6edb96e74facb2300e919ca32d1bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 55c | 9,724$5,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,357.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 45c | 7,815$3,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.44 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 45c | 5,272$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.18 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…0d6bbacked No | 47c | 3,770$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Yes | 53c | 3,679$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,500$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 54c | 2,490$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 46c | 2,429$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 68c | 1,608$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.5 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 54c | 1,413$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…6703backed No | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…6887backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…c47fbacked Yes | 54c | 925$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +165%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 54c | 864.65$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.74 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Yes | 54c | 721.67$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…f973backed Yes | 54c | 708.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 56c | 505$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.11 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 45c | 505$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed No | 72c | 477.9$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed No | 48c | 465.67$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 53c | 431$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.71 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Yes | 54c | 318.52$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 47c | 271$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…2efdbacked Yes | 59c | 231$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…0e88backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb484…341dbacked Yes | 29c | 169.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Yes | 53c | 156.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…c779backed Yes | 55c | 96.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3583…cb02backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb724…fff6backed Yes | 55c | 90.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…f872backed Yes | 56c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…b2fcbacked Yes | 53c | 55.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 42c | 53.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad2…28a4backed Yes | 39c | 43.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…2043backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…487dbacked No | 46c | 33.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked Yes | 53c | 30.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…e0c4backed Yes | 54c | 29.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…19ffbacked No | 72c | 27.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea beat Real Betis?this page
- Will Real Betis beat Chelsea?No won
- Will Real Betis vs. Chelsea end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.