Asian League · resolved market
Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63d2046a57f9e5500099060a2d4fb80afcab9239d76b9723d69a49abb41edb0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 67c | 2,163$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.07 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 24c | 1,276$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Over | 55c | 1,060$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 894.09$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.73 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…c30fbacked Over | 33c | 241.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 43c | 219.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 216.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 51c | 194.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 58.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…f081backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed Over | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff6…8453backed Over | 49c | 20.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.