Asian League · resolved market
Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc554714a492005016e77b9eb19c25298047fd833dd2763be9757de5d90b05684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.99 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 2,887$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.75 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 40c | 679$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 53c | 599.07$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.57 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 394.93$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 40c | 135$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Over | 62c | 128.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 53c | 79.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Under | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 54c | 58.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…fc8cbacked Under | 74c | 54.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…e4abbacked Over | 58c | 50.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 54c | 45.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 60c | 43.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 43c | 35.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Over | 57c | 29.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…14b2backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -6.7wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Over | 53c | 25.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.