Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b0ae04eabdb52bf6aee03c224c509efffb42411fa5c53687caf8fbe15bbb941
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerezo Ōsakaof Vissel Kōbe, Cerezo Ōsaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vissel Kōbe | 33c | 7,404$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.64 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 63c | 7,392$4,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.99 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb1…4a2bbacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 72c | 2,006$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 71c | 1,120$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.8 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…897fbacked Vissel Kōbe | 37c | 881.27$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4029…e222backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 72c | 864$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Vissel Kōbe | 31c | 840.76$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.59 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 72c | 718.96$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.31 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Vissel Kōbe | 36c | 649.84$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.31 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 69c | 173.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…56babacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 72c | 122.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6675…8468backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 72c | 114.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…3e1ebacked Vissel Kōbe | 37c | 106.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 63c | 99.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…fe55backed Vissel Kōbe | 21c | 72.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Vissel Kōbe | 28c | 69.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…5673backed Vissel Kōbe | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Vissel Kōbe | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Vissel Kōbe | 37c | 53.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked Vissel Kōbe | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…9fc3backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Vissel Kōbe | 35c | 45.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked Vissel Kōbe | 37c | 40.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Vissel Kōbe | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 61c | 25.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f619backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…2c4abacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 72c | 17.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…5b3fbacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 72c | 17.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5622…0111backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 70c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)this page
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.