Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63d57584ee6be8e950002a92590935db156ec4330f2a6ff56307f9c5a830123f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 10c | 1,838$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.56 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,454$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,445$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.52 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 8c | 1,204$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…4dc1backed No | 70c | 907.46$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 904.43$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 3c | 746.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…8d0ebacked Yes | 22c | 500.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…0a51backed Yes | 5c | 377.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 9c | 341.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 31c | 322$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 8c | 310$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 25c | 305.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 60c | 304.61$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…0346backed Yes | 43c | 299.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 24c | 291.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…093fbacked Yes | 9c | 280.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 235.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 11c | 231.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 208.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed No | 76c | 201.74$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 31c | 200.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 35c | 195$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked Yes | 34c | 156.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 9c | 146$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 31c | 114.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 30c | 104.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…0919backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked No | 66c | 94.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 72.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 39c | 70.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 79c | 64.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…3fd2backed Yes | 39c | 51.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…2003backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed No | 66c | 43.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 58c | 42.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 43c | 40.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes | 52c | 36.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…a046backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 34c | 32.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 45c | 29.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 28.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 55c | 26.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a98…d85abacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…514cbacked No | 76c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef1…7646backed No | 65c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1515…c242backed No | 65c | 16.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or below on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or higher on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.