Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96d382c46b5b222dccbf466486610bacd8982f2b20397667c06c158f6be608f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 893.25$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 30c | 569.09$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 57c | 345.49$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…9575backed Yes | 64c | 313.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 58c | 207.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 199.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 63c | 185$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 70c | 169.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 68c | 146.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 39c | 127.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 60c | 114.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 46c | 107.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 70c | 100.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 39c | 83.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 66c | 75.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 70.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 66.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 49c | 66.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed No | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes | 58c | 56.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…3fd2backed Yes | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 60c | 50.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 62c | 45.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…0a68backed Yes | 69c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…58e6backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed No | 44c | 38.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7783…1419backed Yes | 56c | 35.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…71f6backed No | 47c | 34.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…151cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 51c | 32.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 64c | 31.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec33…97f1backed No | 48c | 30.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 55c | 29.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…9647backed Yes | 56c | 29.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 39c | 29.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…2ff4backed Yes | 59c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…093fbacked Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707f…4674backed Yes | 58c | 22.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 62c | 18.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…d443backed Yes | 59c | 18.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 67c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…c90ebacked Yes | 75c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or below on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or higher on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.