Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63fc51ccd2968fac5eed3c55c5963755544311060a429fe15e38bd061a5d0740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof PARIVISION, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION | 59c | 4,738$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.14 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…4d30backed OG | 42c | 3,100$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.95 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed OG | 41c | 2,955$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.6 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 39c | 2,288$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.69 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed OG | 15c | 1,448$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.2 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed OG | 40c | 999.98$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed PARIVISION | 3c | 985$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION | 44c | 979.4$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.19 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION | 59c | 799.83$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.02 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked OG | 12c | 357.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed PARIVISION | 22c | 316$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked PARIVISION | 73c | 140.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked PARIVISION | 59c | 122.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed OG | 34c | 86.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…7089backed PARIVISION | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed PARIVISION | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed PARIVISION | 69c | 55.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked OG | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1e…17dbbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 43.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee06…3054backed PARIVISION | 75c | 33.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.9wins | -0.42per pick | 71cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed OG | 43c | 24.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed PARIVISION | 58c | 17.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG - Game 2 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.