Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa73362380c9e3dbb7c29a7a27f084645fb4f4f2ff7b50f927c48b79134361cd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof PARIVISION, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 14c | 3,313$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,853.02 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION | 74c | 2,698$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.59 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 18c | 2,261$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.03 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked OG | 26c | 2,216$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed OG | 16c | 1,409$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.25 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed OG | 25c | 894.96$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.8 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed OG | 32c | 825.31$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.31 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed OG | 27c | 754.27$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.96 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…3de4backed PARIVISION | 74c | 672.04$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked PARIVISION | 55c | 568.42$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.63 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked OG | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.91 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed OG | 37c | 379.03$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.79 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed OG | 35c | 355$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.75 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ec…4279backed OG | 14c | 355$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked PARIVISION | 77c | 244.26$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed OG | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked PARIVISION | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed OG | 19c | 200$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked OG | 29c | 173.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.87 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed PARIVISION | 66c | 166.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed OG | 24c | 144.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed PARIVISION | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed PARIVISION | 55c | 87.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked PARIVISION | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 306 | 43.5%133 W · 173 L | -22.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed OG | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…1479backed OG | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed OG | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO3)OG won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.