TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Australian A League · resolved market

Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Central Coast Mariners FCof Newcastle United Jets FC, Central Coast Mariners FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,380
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,388

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,380 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78ad…45ccbacked Central Coast Mariners FC66c3,909$2,563 inWon+$1,345.28757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Newcastle United Jets FC34c1,809$615 inLost-$614.7443748.3%211 W · 226 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Newcastle United Jets FC35c1,299$454 inLost-$453.8498844.4%439 W · 549 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Newcastle United Jets FC34c415$142 inLost-$142.0234937.8%132 W · 217 L-13.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Newcastle United Jets FC27c200$53 inLost-$531050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+74.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Newcastle United Jets FC35c100$35 inLost-$351250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Central Coast Mariners FC75c100$75 inWon+$2530954.7%169 W · 140 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Newcastle United Jets FC36c43.28$16 inLost-$15.582356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Newcastle United Jets FC36c38.28$14 inLost-$13.782564%16 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Newcastle United Jets FC34c36$12 inLost-$12.2432453.1%172 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c8…bc51backed Newcastle United Jets FC36c30$11 inLost-$10.81526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Newcastle United Jets FC44c24$11 inLost-$10.6314951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd243…2dcfbacked Central Coast Mariners FC64c20.31$13 inWon+$7.311747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Central Coast Mariners FC53c19$10 inWon+$8.9330536.1%110 W · 195 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.