Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38c2af90e6cf54d426bbd4cc4968dc81bdc36af99b2cf73aa83589eae4b22271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Over | 74c | 16,911$12,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,503.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 16,803$5,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,498.49 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 52c | 4,417$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.7 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 26c | 2,164$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.73 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 75c | 1,956$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.92 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 1,456$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.59 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,152$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.53 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 60c | 1,001$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 74c | 677$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 37c | 626.4$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.21 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 75c | 421.41$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 44c | 393$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.02 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 58c | 344.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05aa…22f4backed Over | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 32c | 234.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 77c | 195.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 75c | 189.54$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.16 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 24c | 188.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 8c | 176.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 27c | 144.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…b3b3backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 26c | 136.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 132.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f2…fe1bbacked Over | 72c | 79.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…7b2bbacked Under | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…1754backed Under | 66c | 57.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Under | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9df0…9a65backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.