Tennis · resolved market
Lugano: Mika Brunold vs Alex Knaff
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6431e13696012737fabba149b47c310a79c6ce983038acbdc784a011d73de053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brunoldof Brunold, Knaff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Knaff | 39c | 10,853$4,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,205 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Brunold | 77c | 7,409$5,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.61 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Brunold | 64c | 4,403$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.08 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Brunold | 76c | 2,608$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.16 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…b053backed Brunold | 70c | 2,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Knaff | 17c | 2,435$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.05 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Knaff | 35c | 1,431$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Knaff | 19c | 1,343$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Brunold | 70c | 1,250$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.24 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…412ebacked Knaff | 32c | 1,044$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.12 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Knaff | 51c | 986.2$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Knaff | 23c | 903.35$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.06 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Knaff | 18c | 495$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Knaff | 22c | 442.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Brunold | 73c | 336.04$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Knaff | 32c | 317.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Knaff | 20c | 293$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…04a2backed Brunold | 73c | 272.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Knaff | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked Knaff | 31c | 260.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Brunold | 72c | 242.53$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Knaff | 19c | 220.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd12…5503backed Brunold | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…593ebacked Brunold | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +7.9wins | +0.33per pick | 25cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…8205backed Brunold | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +7.4wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Knaff | 16c | 196.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Knaff | 25c | 144$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Knaff | 20c | 143$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Brunold | 69c | 138.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…0d61backed Brunold | 27c | 116.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Knaff | 33c | 109.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Brunold | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…99bcbacked Brunold | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 240 | 60.8%146 W · 94 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…ca02backed Knaff | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Brunold | 68c | 85.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Knaff | 32c | 82.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Brunold | 74c | 81.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Knaff | 28c | 66.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Knaff | 43c | 63.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Knaff | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Knaff | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Knaff | 19c | 58.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x048b…cdb5backed Brunold | 68c | 54.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1c…94d3backed Knaff | 28c | 53.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Knaff | 39c | 50.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Brunold | 69c | 45.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 375 | 49.1%184 W · 191 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…f81bbacked Knaff | 29c | 44.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Knaff | 32c | 43.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 278 | 55.8%155 W · 123 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Brunold | 70c | 43.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf791…8ef9backed Brunold | 71c | 42.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Knaff | 39c | 41.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Knaff | 29c | 39.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Brunold | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Brunold | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d7…b2adbacked Brunold | 70c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lugano: Mika Brunold vs Alex Knaffthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Brunold vs KnaffBrunold won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.