La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. CD Leganés: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6434004a9457ca23ce79e24d6868efdafd964bde26c6c89ee7a569983ddc9489
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 965.72$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.69 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 853.08$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.85 | 841 | 44.8%377 W · 464 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 644.23$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.8 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 56c | 429.73$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.33 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 407.2$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.64 | 2,347 | 48.5%1,138 W · 1,209 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 378 | 29.4%111 W · 267 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…e39ebacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 39c | 296.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 227 | 29.1%66 W · 161 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 237.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 40c | 228.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 58c | 210.28$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…c382backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 48c | 174.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 13c | 159.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 54c | 118.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 104.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,662 | 43.7%727 W · 935 L | -23.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 42c | 96.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…b729backed Over | 55c | 88.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 26c | 80.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 445 | 24.3%108 W · 337 L | -49.5wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…fa0ebacked Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 66c | 51.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 288 | 46.5%134 W · 154 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 47.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 55c | 43.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 55c | 40.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 28.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,577 | 51.4%811 W · 766 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…8d53backed Under | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 180 | 62.2%112 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 61c | 24.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Over | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +13.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 57c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. CD Leganés: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: UD Almería (-1.5)CD Leganés won
- UD Almería vs. CD Leganés: O/U 3.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. CD Leganés: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.