Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-03-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x643cf73b3a1302e181fdadc8caf81357ab5b88f67e8f9a40af75de5ad4baa358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,086 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Yes | 14c | 13,825$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1270backed Yes | 15c | 13,202$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 15c | 4,367$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.2 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 14c | 1,556$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.84 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 14c | 1,171$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.94 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 15c | 673.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…4059backed Yes | 14c | 672.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8a…cd17backed Yes | 15c | 520.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +204.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 14c | 288$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…185cbacked Yes | 14c | 264.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa83d…3896backed Yes | 15c | 144$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 123.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 15c | 100.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…5394backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes | 16c | 96.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…5946backed Yes | 13c | 92.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…431dbacked Yes | 15c | 79.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…0c01backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-03-08?this page
- Will Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.