Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644459f404db92cf797ba09ab0cd3bd4034042a2e2003e9973254005f841d881
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 492.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 428.39$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 403.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.91 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 7c | 356.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.98 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 277.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.17 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 61c | 189.87$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 21c | 181.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 170.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 160$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 7c | 157.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 143.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 130.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 27c | 117.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5013…765abacked Yes | 19c | 117.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 35c | 103.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 55c | 103$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 25c | 100.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 58c | 92.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 29c | 87.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 83.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 17c | 83.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 75.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…41bcbacked Yes | 19c | 60.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 38c | 55.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 53.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…236bbacked Yes | 28c | 52.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 36c | 51.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 72c | 40.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 35.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 58c | 32.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 55c | 26.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 52c | 22.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 48c | 22.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 22.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 70c | 14.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.