Asian League · resolved market
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644d8d9567b25b00bf99eb840a48336852b71eb2009fe8f4bf9534fc5d9891f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 3,899$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.91 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…9046backed Over | 76c | 2,800$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…d8a5backed Over | 76c | 2,448$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 24c | 600.17$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 25c | 399.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 11c | 390.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.47 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…b275backed Over | 7c | 356.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 287.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 261.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 25c | 170.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 24c | 163.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 71c | 141.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 34c | 77.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Over | 77c | 65.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 30c | 47.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 74c | 46.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 64c | 38.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Yokohama F·Marinos won
- Spread: Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5)Yokohama F·Marinos won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.