MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6460ceef1d021999a212c6a7068541a16960036cf873177a1f2339f0114d8cf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 1,023$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.27 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees | 41c | 600.91$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.37 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 472.56$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 35c | 410.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.27 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb551…8043backed New York Yankees | 39c | 252.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed New York Yankees | 40c | 246.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 215$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked New York Yankees | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed New York Yankees | 22c | 78.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 76.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed New York Yankees | 36c | 76.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 60.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…b454backed New York Yankees | 40c | 37.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 35.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Seattle Mariners | 79c | 30.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed New York Yankees | 36c | 30.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Seattle Mariners | 79c | 28.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…333ebacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 17.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.