MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a8db0aa03813ffce4badfe539a9df46fa1a7449997349befe937132ea032db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 13,768$6,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,884.17 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 50c | 11,920$5,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,960.13 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Over | 52c | 2,072$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.03 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 48c | 1,684$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.67 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 501.44$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 55c | 500.98$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.45 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 287.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 226.54$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 50c | 222.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…85edbacked Over | 51c | 206.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 50c | 151.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 122.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 51c | 115.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 50c | 95.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 50c | 80.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 57.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 49.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed Over | 50c | 49.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under | 51c | 48.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 51c | 48.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 51c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Under | 52c | 37.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 53c | 37.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…6fd9backed Over | 50c | 30.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 50c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 23.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 51c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 51c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 79c | 17.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.