MLB · resolved market
NRFI: New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50c045384a1ae1e4061d4c61bd74669333527ad698ca1787344ca70220800abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7234…1d85backed No | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Yes | 52c | 2,827$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…2287backed Yes | 57c | 956.17$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21df…fdbcbacked No | 49c | 528.69$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 43c | 477.65$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.16 | 1,310 | 50.2%658 W · 652 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 38c | 417.62$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.38 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…602cbacked Yes | 55c | 358.24$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed No | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…b596backed Yes | 55c | 198.82$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Yes | 52c | 197$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.56 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 56c | 175.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…9a69backed No | 49c | 166.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 44c | 124$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 491 | 46.4%228 W · 263 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…8c2ebacked Yes | 77c | 112.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 51c | 86.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 52c | 76.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 52c | 49.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…5cd0backed Yes | 55c | 35.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e12…a41cbacked Yes | 50c | 26.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…4eadbacked No | 50c | 25.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.