Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x646bb64ea4c411589d0c8d39b1f8a5327fac573a87b22c8ecc6b5c9321629001
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivoryof Cloud Dawning, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ebc…e34bbacked Cloud Dawning | 1c | 2,416$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ivory | 79c | 1,570$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.86 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…8b21backed Ivory | 75c | 1,078$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.61 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Cloud Dawning | 25c | 993.18$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.74 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8681…ef99backed Ivory | 76c | 707.48$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.14 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…b4fabacked Ivory | 71c | 687.64$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Cloud Dawning | 16c | 678.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Cloud Dawning | 24c | 631.49$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.56 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1b…de56backed Cloud Dawning | 35c | 541.35$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Cloud Dawning | 34c | 422.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cloud Dawning | 26c | 306.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Cloud Dawning | 30c | 158.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory | 73c | 138.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Cloud Dawning | 20c | 131.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Cloud Dawning | 24c | 120.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Cloud Dawning | 35c | 110.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Ivory | 76c | 106.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Cloud Dawning | 31c | 99.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Cloud Dawning | 21c | 96.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Ivory | 60c | 91.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…fa45backed Ivory | 65c | 89.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…84c6backed Cloud Dawning | 22c | 64.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…49e9backed Cloud Dawning | 24c | 64.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe644…76b6backed Ivory | 76c | 63.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Cloud Dawning | 32c | 59.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Ivory | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked Ivory | 55c | 47.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd689…57d9backed Ivory | 79c | 45.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Ivory | 76c | 43.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Ivory | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Ivory | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Ivory | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Ivory | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…d88cbacked Ivory | 75c | 28.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…172abacked Ivory | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 322 | 52.5%169 W · 153 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Ivory | 55c | 23.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ivory | 59c | 21.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ivory | 76c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…2360backed Ivory | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Ivory | 73c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory - Game 2 WinnerCloud Dawning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.